“George Russell Outqualifies Lewis Hamilton in 2023: The Data Behind Hamilton’s Surprising Struggles”
“George Russell Outqualifies Lewis Hamilton in 2023: The Data Behind Hamilton’s Surprising Struggles”
George Russell has accomplished what none of Lewis Hamilton’s past teammates, like Fernando Alonso, Jenson Button, or Nico Rosberg, could achieve: Russell is the first of Hamilton’s six teammates to win their overall qualifying battle. This season, Russell leads Hamilton 16-5 in qualifying over 21 races, with an average advantage of 0.206 seconds per lap. After a close qualifying season in 2023 and a solid debut as Hamilton’s teammate, Russell has now managed to outqualify the seven-time champion over the season. While Nico Rosberg beat Hamilton in qualifying during their 2014 season together with a 12-7 score, Hamilton still came out on top in the overall head-to-head race record during their partnership at Mercedes. Qualifying has been a consistent strength for Hamilton, so his struggle this season raises questions about what’s changed and how Russell has the edge.
Hamilton has missed Q3 five times this year, including three times in Q1. His last two missed Q3 appearances happened within the last three races, further intensifying the debate around his recent qualifying form. Despite extensive data and telemetry, pinpointing the exact cause has proven challenging, with even Mercedes admitting uncertainty. According to Andrew Shovlin of Mercedes, the team still lacks a clear explanation, as stated after the Brazilian GP. One theory suggests that Russell may be using a more qualifying-focused setup, opting for lower downforce and higher speeds, while Hamilton might be favoring a race-oriented setup aimed at better tire management. This could account for Hamilton’s stronger Sunday performances.
It’s evident, though, that Hamilton has struggled to find confidence in the W15. This season’s Mercedes has a narrow operating range and can be unpredictable, sometimes changing behavior with minor temperature or track variations. Hamilton’s aggressive driving style favors cars that allow smooth, quick rotation, which the W15 lacks, making one-lap performance difficult for him this year. The current F1 cars rely heavily on ground-effect aerodynamics and have particularly stiff front suspensions, which add to handling challenges, especially on bumpy tracks. Even Red Bull faces similar issues, with Max Verstappen able to handle the RB20 more effectively than others.
Russell, on the other hand, has shown a high degree of adaptability, not just at Mercedes but also during his early days with Williams. Back then, he managed to bring a Q1-level car into Q3 in tricky conditions. Thus, comparing Hamilton with Russell—nicknamed “Mr. Saturday” for his strong qualifying skills—isn’t a typical comparison. Russell is one of the strongest qualifiers on the grid, and he had already proven himself before joining Mercedes, losing only two qualifying battles to Nicholas Latifi in 2021 while beating him 20-2 and, before that, 16-0 in 2020 and 21-0 against Robert Kubica in 2019.
Hamilton’s struggle may also be tied to factors beyond technical and sporting concerns. Since his controversial loss in the 2021 championship finale and Mercedes’ recent decline, Hamilton seems to have lost some motivation. His upcoming switch to Ferrari appears to signal a desire for a fresh start and renewed drive. Ferrari, similarly eager for a championship after years without one, offers Hamilton a chance to return to the top, even as he approaches 40. For Hamilton, this new chapter could reignite his passion, as he takes on a challenge that will demand his best to satisfy Ferrari’s Tifosi and his own ambitions.
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