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Lewis Hamilton Tipped for Shock F1 Exit as Retirement Odds Shorten

Speculation around Lewis Hamilton’s Formula 1 future has intensified, with bookmakers now making the seven-time world champion the favourite to walk away from the sport sooner rather than later. Following a difficult first season with Ferrari in 2025, questions are being raised about whether the most successful driver in F1 history is approaching the end of his remarkable career.

Hamilton endured a frustrating debut campaign in red, failing to secure a single grand prix podium and often cutting a subdued figure in post-race interviews. For a driver accustomed to fighting at the front, the struggles appeared to take a visible toll, with his media appearances increasingly marked by short answers and a reflective tone that fuelled talk of possible retirement.

While the precise structure of Hamilton’s Ferrari contract has never been publicly confirmed, the Briton has previously suggested that his agreement stretches well beyond 2026. Speaking late last year, he described it as a “pretty long contract,” aligning with widespread belief that his deal includes options that leave his future firmly in his own control through at least the end of the 2027 season.

Despite that contractual security, betting markets tell a different story. Betfair have installed Hamilton as odds-on to retire during 2026, pricing an exit at 4/5. The odds lengthen significantly beyond that, with a 2027 retirement offered at 5/1 and an extension of his career past that point priced at 8/1.

A Betfair spokesperson, Sam Rosbottom, explained the company’s thinking, highlighting how uncertainty around Hamilton contrasts with optimism elsewhere in British motorsport. “In Formula 1, it’s Evens that we see another British driver winning the drivers’ championship,” Rosbottom said, pointing to George Russell at 4/1 to take the title. “Meanwhile, Lewis Hamilton is odds-on to retire before the end of the year, with the F1 icon 5/1 to race for one more season.”

Inside Ferrari, however, there is little public concern about Hamilton’s mindset or commitment. Team principal Fred Vasseur has played down suggestions that the driver’s body language signals disengagement, instead praising the way Hamilton has continued to work behind the scenes despite the on-track disappointments.

Vasseur stressed that silence in the media pen should not be mistaken for a lack of motivation. He explained that, in his view, it is far more valuable for a driver to return quickly to the engineers, analyse the problems and contribute to solutions than to offer lengthy television soundbites after a tough race. According to Vasseur, Hamilton maintained exactly that approach during the latter part of the season, bringing what he described as “positive energy” into the team even during difficult moments.

The Ferrari boss also acknowledged the pressure drivers face immediately after a poor result, suggesting that reluctance to engage extensively with the media is entirely understandable. For Vasseur, Hamilton’s continued collaboration and technical input matter far more than his public mood.

Whether those internal efforts translate into renewed success remains to be seen. For now, the combination of a challenging season, visible frustration and shortening retirement odds has ensured that Hamilton’s future will remain one of the most closely watched storylines in Formula 1 as 2026 approaches.

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