Can Max Verstappen Clinch the 2024 Drivers' Title Early?

Can Max Verstappen Clinch the 2024 Drivers’ Title Early?

As the 2024 Formula 1 season approaches its final stages, Max Verstappen remains the frontrunner in the drivers’ championship, though he’s facing rising pressure from Lando Norris. In the constructors’ standings, McLaren and Ferrari are similarly locked in a tight contest, keeping both titles hotly contested.

Verstappen won his third title in 2023 with five rounds to spare, but with only four races left in 2024, the championship picture is less clear. Here’s an analysis of the points at stake, the scenarios for an early title win, and what Norris needs to pull off to stay in the hunt.

How Many Points Are Still Available?

With four rounds left, there’s a maximum of 120 points up for grabs. This includes 100 points from four Grand Prix victories (each worth 25 points), 16 points from two Sprint wins in Sao Paulo and Qatar (8 points each), and an additional four points if a driver sets the fastest lap in each Grand Prix. To secure all 120 points, a driver would need to win every race, take both Sprints, and clock the fastest lap each time.

What’s the Earliest Verstappen Could Seal the Title?

The math shows that Verstappen could lock down the championship as soon as the Las Vegas Grand Prix. For this to happen, Verstappen would need to score maximum points in both the Sao Paulo and Las Vegas rounds, while Norris would need to come away empty-handed in both. If these conditions are met, Verstappen would establish an unassailable 106-point lead, rendering the final two races in Qatar and Abu Dhabi irrelevant to the championship outcome.

What Does Norris Need to Stay in the Fight?

For Norris to beat Verstappen, he needs to consistently finish ahead of him in each of the remaining rounds. If Norris were to finish first and Verstappen second in every remaining event, excluding any fastest lap bonuses, the championship would be decided in Abu Dhabi. This scenario would leave Verstappen with a 24-point lead entering the final race, and if both drivers finished one-two in that round as well, Verstappen would clinch the title by 17 points.

To seriously challenge Verstappen, Norris must outscore him at every opportunity and ideally capitalize on at least one weekend with a significant points gain. Norris’s recent victory over Verstappen in Mexico reduced the points gap to 47, but he’ll need a few more strong performances to maintain pressure on the reigning champion.

As the season approaches the finish line, Verstappen’s lead is commanding, yet not unbreakable. With every point critical, fans can expect a tense battle between the Dutchman and the rising Briton in the final races.