How Verstappen can end Norris...

How Verstappen can end Norris title dream at Dutch… Read More 👇

Max Verstappen is on the brink of crushing Lando Norris’ hopes of winning the Formula 1 drivers’ championship as the season resumes at the Dutch Grand Prix next weekend. Despite recent challenges for Red Bull and an impressive surge from McLaren, there has been growing anticipation around a potential title battle between Verstappen and Norris. However, with Norris trailing Verstappen by 78 points and just 10 races left in the season, the gap is already substantial and may be insurmountable.

Even if Verstappen were to skip the next three traditional race weekends, he would likely still remain at the top of the standings, given the point distribution in Formula 1 (25 points for a win and one for the fastest lap). This reality underscores the improbability of Norris catching up, let alone surpassing Verstappen, especially considering that the largest deficit ever overcome in the championship was 39 points. This record was set by Sebastian Vettel in 2012 when he managed to close a 39-point gap behind Fernando Alonso with seven races to go. In contrast, Norris would need to overcome a deficit that is exactly double that of Vettel’s.

Given these statistics, the likelihood of Norris catching Verstappen appears slim, even if McLaren has a faster car in the remaining races. However, the media and fans continue to fuel speculation about a possible title fight, keeping Norris’ dream alive, albeit tenuously.

The Dutch Grand Prix at Zandvoort could be the race where that dream officially ends. Should Verstappen secure his fourth consecutive victory at his home Grand Prix, he would extend his lead over Norris to at least 84 points, assuming Norris finishes second and earns the fastest lap point. While this is only a six-point increase over the current 78-point gap, it would mean that Verstappen could afford to miss a third of the remaining races and still retain his lead in the championship standings, excluding sprint rounds.

If Norris were to win the Dutch Grand Prix, he could potentially reduce his deficit to around 70 points, or even closer to 60 points, depending on where Verstappen finishes. However, given Verstappen’s strong home support and Red Bull’s typically dominant performance, it’s difficult to imagine him finishing outside the podium next weekend.

Verstappen’s success at Zandvoort will largely depend on how competitive McLaren, Mercedes, and Ferrari are. With four teams potentially vying for victory, securing a strong result may prove challenging for Verstappen. Nevertheless, if the RB20 performs well, a win for Verstappen at the Dutch GP would likely silence any remaining speculation about the drivers’ championship and effectively secure him his fourth consecutive title.

For Red Bull, a victory for Verstappen at Zandvoort would also allow the team to shift more focus toward the constructors’ championship, where McLaren is posing a greater threat. Currently, McLaren trails Red Bull by just 42 points in the constructors’ standings, largely due to the struggles of Sergio Perez. While the battle for the constructors’ title is far from over, Verstappen can all but secure the drivers’ championship with a win in his home race, putting Norris’ title aspirations definitively out of reach..