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Tenant rankings for the 2024 World Series: When will your team triumph?

The question posed is whether your favorite team is a contender for the 2024 World Series or if it’s more realistic to target 2025 or beyond. It’s emphasized that predictions are about expectation, not destiny, as demonstrated by last year’s surprises.

Teams are divided into tiers based on their likelihood of reaching the World Series. The higher the tier, the better the chance of making it to the Fall Classic. This reflects the new reality in Major League Baseball, with its expanded postseason and more room for surprises. The focus is on getting into the playoffs, as anything can happen once a team is there.

The tier system is based on preseason forecasts for each team, which include ratings of rosters, depth charts, and strengths and weaknesses. These ratings are used in simulations of the 2024 schedule to estimate each team’s chance of winning the World Series. Teams are then ranked by average simulation wins and placed into one of five tiers according to their playoff and championship probabilities, with an added estimation of their arrival as contenders for the latter tiers.

Tier 1: Front-runners for the top seed in their league, all-in for winning the 2024 World Series.
Tier 2: Not projected for the top seed but could end up there by season’s end; clearly in the win-now category.
Tier 3: Unlikely immediate title contenders but have a chance at a playoff berth; anything can happen once there.
Tier 4: Mostly recent rebuilding units moving toward contention status, a move or two away from climbing up the hierarchy.
Tier 5: Teams estimated to be two years away from contention.

Each tier is discussed with insights into the state of the franchise, pivotal issues, and estimated time of arrival as contenders.

Overall, the analysis provides a comprehensive look at each team’s chances for the 2024 season and beyond, emphasizing the unpredictability of baseball and the importance of making it to the postseason.